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What Modi and India Can Offer Trump on Trade
The article first appeared in New York Times on Feb 12, 2025. India-US trade relations have long been a cornerstone of economic diplomacy between the two nations. Over the years, trade between India and the United States has grown significantly, making the partnership beneficial for both economies. India remains one of the few Asian countries that trade more with the U.S. than with China, underscoring the strategic importance of this relationship. However, trade imbalances and tariff disputes have occasionally strained the partnership, particularly during the Trump administration. One of the main concerns in India-US trade relations has been the trade surplus India enjoys over the United States. In recent years, India has exported goods worth approximately $87 billion to the U.S., while importing $42 billion, leading to a trade surplus of $46 billion. Former President Donald Trump was vocal about his dissatisfaction with such trade deficits, often criticizing countries that exported more to the U.S. than they imported. India was no exception, and its tariffs on American goods, particularly motorcycles like Harley-Davidson, became a point of contention. During his presidency, Trump referred to India as the “tariff king” due to its high duties on certain American products. His administration pushed for lower tariffs and fairer trade practices, leading India to make some adjustments. Despite these disagreements, the overall trajectory of India-US trade relations remained positive, with both countries recognizing the need to strengthen economic ties. Looking forward, there are several opportunities for India and the U.S. to enhance their trade partnership. The technology sector, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy are promising areas for deeper collaboration. India’s growing digital economy presents new markets for American companies, while U.S. firms can benefit from India’s skilled workforce and expanding consumer base. Both nations can work towards reducing trade barriers, fostering investment, and creating a more balanced trade framework. While political changes may influence trade policies, the economic relationship between India and the U.S. remains robust. By addressing tariff disputes and leveraging emerging sectors, both countries can ensure that India-US trade relations continue to thrive, benefiting businesses and consumers on both sides... Read more at New York Times Find more Global Indian Top Reads

India to host next AI summit, pitches to make it mindful of needs of Global South
This article first appeared in The New Indian Express on February 12, 2025. India is set to host the next global AI summit, as confirmed by the office of French President Emmanuel Macron. The decision follows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s co-chairing of the recent AI summit in Paris, where he expressed India's willingness to lead the next event. This development marks a significant step in India's commitment to shaping an inclusive, sustainable, and innovation-driven AI governance framework, particularly for the Global South. As the AI conversation shifts from a focus on safety in 2023 to action in 2025, India aims to ensure that governance structures address global challenges while fostering equitable technological advancements. The country has actively participated in all five working groups—international governance, the future of work, security and safety, AI for general interest, and innovation and culture—demonstrating its comprehensive approach to AI governance. Despite differences among nations, particularly the US and the UK, India remains committed to achieving a collaborative outcome for the summit. Recognizing the role of AI governance in ensuring accessibility, Prime Minister Modi has emphasized inclusivity and sustainability as key principles. He highlighted that the Global South faces challenges such as limited compute power, talent, data, and financial resources, which must be addressed to enable equitable AI-driven development. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri reiterated this vision, stating that India's goal is to maximize benefits for the greatest number of people. Since assuming the G20 Presidency, India has actively worked to integrate more Global South nations into AI discussions. S Krishnan, Secretary of the Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology, compared this moment to the Y2K revolution for India's IT sector, underscoring the need to prioritize innovation. AI’s potential to transform industries like healthcare, education, and agriculture makes it a crucial tool for accelerating progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Prime Minister Modi also stressed the importance of sustainable AI, noting that efficiency in AI models extends beyond clean energy usage to optimizing data needs and resource requirements. He drew a powerful analogy, stating that while AI demands vast resources, the human brain, despite its limitations, is capable of extraordinary feats such as composing poetry and designing spacecraft. Additionally, India seeks to expand the membership of the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI), which currently includes 44 nations. By fostering collaboration between theoretical AI research and practical implementation, India envisions a future where AI innovation benefits all, especially developing nations. With a strong commitment to inclusivity, sustainability, and technological progress, India's leadership in the next global AI summit is set to shape the future of artificial intelligence governance... Read More at The New Indian Express Find more Global Indian Top Reads

What Indian Americans think of Trump’s policies on immigration and tariffs and impact on India
The article first appeared in Hindustan Times on Feb 5, 2025. Indian Americans have diverse opinions about former President Donald Trump’s policies on immigration and tariffs, especially regarding their implications for both the United States and India. While some appreciated his strong stance on economic policies, others were critical of his restrictive immigration measures. One of the most contentious issues for Indian Americans and Trump was his administration’s approach to immigration. Many Indian professionals in the U.S. rely on H-1B visas, which saw increased scrutiny under Trump. His administration sought to tighten regulations, making it harder for new applicants and delaying green card processing. This created uncertainty among highly skilled Indian workers, many of whom had been waiting for permanent residency for years. On the other hand, some Indian Americans and Trump supporters felt that stricter immigration policies helped protect American jobs. They argued that prioritizing merit-based immigration could ultimately benefit Indian talent by favoring skilled professionals over family-based immigration systems. However, the overall sentiment in the Indian American community leaned towards disappointment, as many families faced delays and disruptions. Trade policies under Trump also affected the perception of Indian Americans. His administration imposed tariffs on Indian goods, leading to tensions between the two countries. In response, India retaliated with tariffs on American products, impacting both economies. Indian Americans and Trump’s economic strategies were often viewed as protectionist, which clashed with the interests of businesses relying on cross-border trade. Despite these challenges, some Indian Americans and Trump allies saw his push for fairer trade deals as beneficial in the long run. They believed that recalibrating trade relations could lead to a stronger partnership between the U.S. and India. However, businesses dependent on Indian exports, particularly in the IT and pharmaceutical industries, were affected by the policy shifts. While Trump maintained a close relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his policies had mixed consequences for India. The focus on "America First" led to economic friction, but strategic ties, especially in defense and counterterrorism, remained strong. Many Indian Americans and Trump supporters acknowledged the strengthening of diplomatic relations but remained concerned about the economic impact... Read more at Hindustan Times Find more Global Indian Top Reads

There’s a big, non-obvious Trump problem for India
This article first appeared in The Times of India on February 9, 2025. Donald Trump’s tariff policies have been a source of uncertainty for global markets, creating potential risks for investment and economic growth. His unpredictable approach to trade regulations and tariffs has sparked debates worldwide, with concerns that such actions could harm business confidence. For India, these policies pose specific challenges, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi works to stabilize trade relations and ensure a favorable investment climate. One of the key issues with Donald Trump’s tariff policies is their unpredictability. While he has occasionally held off on imposing tariffs, such as the temporary suspension of 25% duties on Canada and Mexico, his broader trade strategy suggests a strong inclination toward protectionism. This unpredictability makes it difficult for businesses to plan long-term investments, as sudden tariff impositions can disrupt supply chains and increase costs. Investors fear that these policies could slow down global economic growth by reducing cross-border trade efficiency. India, being a significant player in the global market, faces potential setbacks due to Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Increased tariffs on Indian goods could make exports less competitive in the US, one of India’s key trading partners. Additionally, higher import duties on essential raw materials could increase production costs for Indian manufacturers, affecting both domestic industries and export-driven sectors. The uncertainty surrounding US trade policies also impacts investor sentiment, making businesses more cautious about expanding operations or making long-term financial commitments. Beyond direct economic consequences, Trump's aggressive tariff approach strains diplomatic relations. Countries that have historically been close allies of the US have found themselves subject to abrupt tariff impositions, leading to tensions and retaliatory measures. This pattern raises concerns that even India, despite its strategic partnership with the US, could be subject to sudden trade restrictions. Modi’s administration must navigate these challenges carefully to protect India's economic interests while maintaining a stable relationship with the US. As global markets react to shifting trade policies, it is crucial for businesses to diversify supply chains and seek alternative trade routes to minimize risks. India can leverage its growing digital economy and strengthen trade partnerships with other countries to counterbalance potential losses from US tariff hikes. While the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies remains a challenge, a proactive approach in economic planning and policy adjustments can help India mitigate the negative effects and sustain long-term growth... Read More in The Times of India Find more Global Indian Top Reads

Should India build a sovereign, foundational AI model?
The article first appeared in The Hindu on Feb 7, 2025. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming global industries, and India, as a rising technology powerhouse, must consider whether it should develop its own sovereign AI model. A foundational AI model—a large-scale AI trained on diverse datasets—can serve as the backbone for various applications, from healthcare to governance. Given India's unique linguistic diversity, socio-economic challenges, and national security concerns, the idea of an Indian AI model holds significant merit. A domestically built AI model ensures that India's vast data resources remain within the country. This reduces dependency on foreign AI firms, mitigating risks of data misuse and ensuring compliance with national privacy regulations. Countries like the U.S. and China have developed their own AI ecosystems; India should follow suit to maintain strategic autonomy. Data sovereignty is crucial, as reliance on external AI models could expose sensitive information to foreign entities. India's linguistic and cultural diversity is unparalleled. A foundational Indian AI model can be trained on regional languages, dialects, and locally relevant datasets. This will improve AI-driven applications in governance, education, and customer service, ensuring they cater effectively to the entire population. For example, AI-powered language translation and voice recognition systems designed specifically for Indian languages can bridge communication gaps in rural areas. Developing a sovereign AI model would drive investment in domestic AI research, benefiting startups, universities, and tech firms. This aligns with initiatives like "Make in India" and "Digital India," positioning the country as a global AI leader. A robust AI ecosystem would also create new job opportunities and boost innovation across multiple sectors, from agriculture to financial services. By focusing on indigenous AI research, India can reduce dependency on Western AI frameworks and build a technology ecosystem that caters specifically to its needs. A homegrown AI system would enhance India's position in the global AI economy, reducing reliance on costly foreign technologies. Additionally, in critical sectors like defense and cybersecurity, an Indian AI model would ensure that sensitive information remains protected. National security concerns dictate that India must have control over its AI infrastructure to safeguard against cyber threats and geopolitical risks. Despite these advantages, India faces challenges in building a sovereign AI model. Training large-scale AI models requires substantial computational power, which India must scale up through investments in AI supercomputing. Additionally, while India has a strong IT workforce, high-end AI research needs further support through academic and industry collaboration. Ethical and regulatory considerations must also be addressed to prevent AI biases and ensure transparency. Read more at The Hindu Find more Global Indian Top Reads

USAID shutdown may not have a significant impact on India
This article first appeared on The Hindu BusinessLine on February 04, 2025 Following the recent decision by the newly appointed Trump administration to dismantle the humanitarian aid agency, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), data show that this decision will not impact India substantially. From 2015 to 2024, India received around $1.5 billion from the USAID, and the share of funding to India remained flat in this period in the range of 0.2 per cent to 0.4 per cent of USAID’s total global funding. USAID funding to India has seen fluctuations over the years. In 2014, around $120.4 million was disbursed to India, which increased to $136.3 million in 2018. In the post-pandemic years, it has been growing, with 2022 recording the highest disbursements with $251.2 million in total. However, it dipped to $159.7 million in 2024. A substantial portion of the total funds received by India goes towards the development of sectors such as health and the economy. According to data from foreignassistance.gov, the US government funded India’s health sector with around $54.7 million in 2020, which increased to $189.5 million in 2022. However, it declined to $79.3 million in 2024. They provided around $17.2 million in 2020 for its economic development, which rose to 26.7 million in 2023 and further increased to $34.4 million in 2024.
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